S2 E8: There is NO Debating the Current Health of the Economy!

There was a mind-numbing Presidential debate this week on national TV, but there is NO "debating" the facts:

Fact -- the US consumer is cocooning, cutting back discretionary spending amid a depletion of savings, maxed-out credit cards, and "real" wages that barely keep pace with (still high) inflation. "Real" (inflation adjusted, in dollar terms) Retail Sales have been NEGATIVE for five consecutive months, in 19 of the last 20 months, and in 24 of the last 27 months. That is a FACT.

Fact -- the US housing market is CRUMBLING, as New and Existing Home Sales PLUNGE and violate multi-decade uptrend lines as prices hit new record highs and mortgage rates remain high. Moreover, Sales crash while Starts, Permits and Completions all are plummeting and reaching recession-like levels, setting up the next great home price inflation when the Fed does eventually cut rates.

Fact -- excluding the 2Q of 2020 and $3.2 trillion in COVID relief, Joe Biden has created more debt than ANY other President, BY a factor of +50%, and he still has three more quarters to continue his policy of using taxpayer money to try and buy this election. Oh, and as of the end-1Q Public Debt hit another record high of $35.586 trillion, up by +$6.839 trillion since Biden took office.

Fact -- inflation remains HIGH, and is set to re-accelerate to the UPSIDE, after posting a Gasoline price decline induced unchanged reading for the month of May. Over half of the (16) major US cities still post a year-year CPI rate of +4%, or higher.

Greg discusses all of the above, and offers specific investment strategy thoughts on Energy, Crude Oil in particular, the high-flying Information-Technology shares, the Communication Services sector, the XLRE Real Estate ETF, and the Mortgage Backed Securities market, in today's Money, Markets & New Age Investing podcast.

And, for the charts mentioned within, or for any other information pertaining to the topics discussed in this podcast, please feel free to email directly sales@weldononline.com

Transcript

Political Commentary on US Leadership

Speaker 1 0:00

Hi Greg Walden here, your host of Money Markets and New Age Investing. This is Season 2, episode 8, and man, do we have a lot to talk about? We are two days removed now from the presidential debate in the US. It's unfortunate that we don't have at least one really strong candidate when it comes to discussing policy. There's no discussion of policy there. There really wasn't. What there was was a lot of back and forth, a lot of bickering.

Speaker 1 0:29

You know I would say that. You know, certainly Biden. You know I don't like to get political, but it's going to be tough to defend the policies that have put this country in the position we're in. We're a laughingstock overseas. We look weak overseas. The dynamic around Afghanistan was a really good example of that, the dynamic around. Maybe the Russian invasion wouldn't even have happened if it weren't for this administration's weak appearance outwardly. I think that's an interesting point. You talk about the border. I mean, come on, man, there's no defending this policy where you have people now literally living in luxury hotels at the expense of veterans and stuff like that.

Speaker 1 1:10

You know a lot of hyperbole, a lot of rhetoric, certainly falsehoods from both sides. I'm not defending or supporting either side, frankly, but I do believe that, in a situation where you cannot allow Joe Biden to be president again and I have said since day one, when they agreed to debate, I said that behind the scenes, this is some kind of democratic plot to expose him and to get him out, because they know they can't beat Trump with Biden. There's no way. And my suspicion is and this is crazy because this is what we do is, you know, I learned to do this a long time ago when I worked for a hedge fund in New York under one of the most brilliant traders, thinkers, theorizers, people I've ever known, louis Bacon. I mean, we used to sit around and what, if, what, if, what, if? Every situation to death, and come up with all kinds of crazy scenarios that could pop off, because you never can tell. And one of those crazy scenarios, especially knowing that Barack Obama has been key in trying to prep Biden for this debate, where he was holed up in Camp David all week, with rooms that were made to look like the debate room, with questions that were probably already given to the Biden camp. I don't doubt that for a second, although I think, relatively speaking speaking, cnn did a better job than I expected they would. So I'll give them some kudos for that. But the dynamic around you know what's going on in the background.

Speaker 1 2:32

What if they drafted Michelle Obama? Just think about that for a minute. It's not as outrageous as it sounds. She's very well liked. Obama wasn't the worst president in history. Certainly.

Speaker 1 2:45

You know I'm not going to be voting for an Obama ticket, but nonetheless you could say that would be preferable, certainly to the Democrats, to Joe Biden. Come on, experiences eight years as the first lady. At least have some comfort level in doing the job and you feel. Well, barack would kind of you know, pseudo, be running things. That's not a knock on michelle, but she doesn't have the experience. I mean, it's a really interesting thought process.

Speaker 1 3:17

Now some people say oh, you bring back hillary. Yeah, she's just not liked enough and she's a liar, everyone knows it. Uh, you're bringing gavin newsom. Forget about he can't beat trump. Gavin newsom is way too radical on his side. He's much like desantis way too radical on his side, I think. Desantis, I mean the way he's governed florida spectacular, absolutely 100 spectacular. And a lot of people want to bash florida. But I'll tell you what I mean it's a rip-roaring state with all kinds of freedoms that are not going to ever be infringed upon. As long as these, you know, as long as the powers that be maintain control of Florida and Texas, at least you have a refuge from this liberal thing that they want to say is in the name of protecting democracy. I mean, you know it's ludicrousrous, you know it's quite obvious going after Trump makes us a banana republic, looking country to everybody out there.

Speaker 1 4:10

So in that context, I think one of the biggest things that kind of ticks me off is when you know the powers that be the media lie. Joe Scarborough, for example. I don't watch him. I don't know any much about him. What I do know is he's the guy that you know was F you right. If you don't watch him, I don't know much about him. What I do know is he's the guy that was F you right. If you don't think Biden is fully capable of doing his job, well, guess what? Joe Scarborough F you. I mean, you're a liar. You talk to a guy every day. You should have known His wife should know she's out there pushing him. Still, it's ridiculous, it's embarrassing. I mean I heard someone call it elder abuse and frankly you can make that case.

Speaker 1 4:54

And the degree to which Joe Scarborough posted today on his Twitter feed a story from the hill about debt and how Donald Trump's policies were responsible for twice as much debt creation as Joe Biden. It's a lie. You lie about his health. You lie about his policies. You lie about the impact. You lie about his policies. You lie about the impact. You lie that no soldiers have gotten killed. Oh my God. The families of the soldiers that have been killed under Biden's watch are furious as well. They should be. It's a joke. We're a laughingstock with this guy as president.

Speaker 1 5:18

And to the extent that you want to make up lies, you know and you go after your political opponents. Hey, donald Trump is a blowhard buffoon. I mean he is. He doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut. He thinks he's smarter. He wants everyone to think he's smarter than he really is. He's not that smart. All right, he's got the vocabulary of a eighth grader and he's got the you know kind of the patience and the inner calm of a six-year-old. When he's attacked, he lashes out. He can't keep his mouth shut All right, he's a child and if it weren't for family money, he'd probably be broke all his life. All right, but the bottom line is his policies are preferable to those that are in place right now. It's that simple. He's united the Republican Party because Joe Biden's so bad that it's divided the Democratic Party to the point where they're on the verge of fracturing, where the powers that be want to maintain power, because they don't care if Biden can't really govern, because they'll govern for him. It's the younger faction of the Democratic Party that's all bent out of shape because he's a joke and he's a laughingstock internationally and we can't have that internationally and we can't have that.

Speaker 1 6:27

But when you start lying, as Joe Scarborough did today on Twitter, that Joe Biden has created half as much debt as Donald Trump Donald Trump responsible twice as much debt creation it's a straight up lie. The numbers are what they are. You can't dispute the math. And here's the math Donald Trump, in his presidency, created the I'm not going to say created the public debt rose by 7.77 trillion under Biden 6.84. So Trump did theoretically create more debt. Having said that, almost half, almost half 3.25 almost half of the 7.7, 3.25, I mean it's you know was created in the second quarter of 2020. One quarter pandemic relief to basically save the economy. Now I'm not going to throw in the third and fourth quarters, which I could because Biden had a couple of quarters with COVID relief as well, in the first quarter, second quarter of 2021. You take those four quarters, they match off against one another pretty well.

Speaker 1 7:29

Bottom line is, if you exclude the second quarter of 2020, donald Trump. Under his presidency, public debt rose by $4.3 trillion, under Biden $6.8 trillion. It's not true that Donald Trump's presidency created twice as much debt as joe biden's, not even close. Joe biden's presidency, excluding the second quarter of 2020, created almost 50 percent more debt than has trump, and he's not done yet. That's only through the first quarter of this year, at 34, 4.586 trillion, up from when he took office at 26.477. So again, 34.6 up from 26.5. 6.8 trillion under Biden. Not only that, under President Trump, the Fed shrank their balance sheet. Under Biden, the balance sheet is still twice as large as it's ever been. Even though it has come down by $1.1 trillion over the last 52 weeks, it's still twice as high. So you want to start playing political games. You could say that the Fed has supported Biden while the Fed was doing QT, while Trump was president, and that's a fact, straight up fact.

Speaker 1 8:48

Let's talk about inflation a little bit, because of course you know the Biden camp is just in denial. I mean Janet Yellen, the interview with Janet Yellen, I mean when are they going to retire her? She needs to be put out to pasture. A lot of these people need to be put out to pasture. It's really pathetic. This is our country. It's the best we have. Come on, man. All right, let's talk inflation. Already they're kind of wanting to declare victory over inflation.

Speaker 1 9:14

Prices have come down. Well, inflation's come down. Prices have not come down. That's a lie. To say prices have come down is a straight-up lie. Prices have come down over Joe Biden. It's not true.

Speaker 1 9:28

All right, the rate of inflation for May was zero. For the month, all right, it was running at 3.6 to 4.8, and now it just collapsed to zero. Almost all of that decrease came because gasoline prices fell by 3.2% during the month. In fact, gasoline prices were up year over year by 2.2. Even the change in gasoline on a year over year basis was higher than the Fed's target. And guess what? Gasoline's coming from minus 25. Energy's coming from minus 30 plus and it's back into positive territory.

Speaker 1 10:05

Every major component of inflation the four components being all items food, energy and all items less food and energy are all above 2%. In fact, food is the only one below 3, and it's going up Again. Services excluding energy 5.4, and it's been sticking there for months. Electricity 5.7. Food away from home 4% and on the rise. What's deflating Furniture, appliances and household items? Why? Because consumers aren't buying them, so that you have now price discounting. It's a war of attrition, not only on behalf of consumers who can't afford to buy stuff like furniture and clothes, but among those that sell that stuff now cutting prices to try and get business to try and maintain market share to try and stay alive. Business is trying to stay alive, consumers trying to stay alive.

Speaker 1 11:04

I've already run through the numbers with you from the New York Fed Household Survey about how many more people feel much worse off or worse off now than they did a year ago and how many people expect to be much worse off or worse off a year from now. It's way higher than it was before the pandemic, way higher like hugely higher, and completely flip-flopped versus the people expect to feel much better. The percentage of people expect to feel much worse 12 months from now is higher than those expecting to feel much better, and that's a rarity. A rarity Got to go way back to find that, and when we talk about retail sales.

Speaker 1 11:44

All right, let me just touch on inflation one more time. And in terms of inflation, when you talk about the places where the most people live, aka cities, the inflation rates threw in a roof. Eight of the 16 cities for which the BLS gives us inflation numbers are above 4%, that's half Half of the 16 major cities in this country have inflation above 4. 14 of them are above 3. There's only one that's below 2% and that's Tampa, at 1.8, which is shocking, because I think if you ask anyone who lives in Tampa, they're not going to tell you inflation is 1.8. Boston 4. Dallas 5. La 4. Miami 4.5. Seattle 4.4. Philly 4.1. St Louis 4. New York City 3.9. Chicago is a low one, at 3.1, but it's up from 3. And most of these cities rose in inflation in the month of May.

Speaker 1 12:48

In that context, let's talk about retail sales, because retail sales have been $600 billion a month since January of 2023. They have not moved in 16 months. The change is less than 1% over the last 16 months in dollar terms, and that includes inflation of 4% 3.5% to 4%. So thus, real retail sales are negative and this shows up in terms of the percentage changes, in terms of the dollar numbers. We've looked at this before. The only other times where we've seen real retail sales in negative territory was in the tech bubble crash, the global financial crisis and the pandemic. That's it. And now, not only that, we've been in outright deflation in real retail sales five months in a row 19 of the last 20 months and 24 of the last 27 months, dating all the way back to 2022.

Speaker 1 13:57

How does joe biden defend that? And why isn't donald trump asking him these questions? I mean, yeah, trump did a great job relatively speaking, but he did a terrible job in terms of having specifics. Data man. Data is the king. When you have data, you're king because you can prove your points. It's not just opinion, it's not just falsehoods, it's not just rhetoric, it's not just hyperbole, it's fact. The fact of the matter is, people feel much worse off, and it's because of inflation and because even income is barely keeping up. Savings are gone, credit cards are maxed out and delinquency rates are skyrocketing like we haven't seen since 2007. I gave you all those numbers in the last podcast. We did so. The Fed says they don't want to wait for something to break Stuff's breaking. The housing market is still cracking.

Speaker 1 14:50

The housing data that came out in the last six business days was horrific, horrific Multi-year lows in just about everything from supply to demand, about everything from supply to demand. Let's take a look. Let's start with the sales side. New home sales 619,000. Annualized number that's how they do it seasonally adjusted annualized rate. New home sales 619,000. They're expected 640. All right, last month was 634, was expected at 680, and you were just at 700. Now you're pressing 600, and below 600,000 is recession levels.

Speaker 1 15:35

Here's the year-over-year changes in new homes sold In the US overall down 16.5% year-over-year In the East, down 43.8%. In the South down 17.7% percent in the south down seventeen point seven. In the west, down twenty point nine. Now the number of new homes for sale rose by twelve point nine percent. The problem is this is going to peter out because starts, permits and completions are crashing so and the sales are just purely a function. I mean, excuse me, the supply increase is purely a function of the lack of sales. That's particularly true in existing homes.

Speaker 1 16:15

Existing home sales 4.11 million annual rate in the month of May, just reported last week. This week, rather All right, it's down 3% year over year. Price is up 6%. Price is at a record high and sales below four you don't see that often below four million and at the level now you have violated the uptrend line in existing home sales. That dates back to 1982. I'll send you these charts, I'll send you my piece on housing if you want to see them Again. The stats don't lie, the statistics just don't lie. And we're talking about housing. It's really bad. You're violating the uptrend line and existing home sales go back to 1982.

Speaker 1 17:02

Now what's interesting in this context is that, as sales are collapsing and prices are rising and mortgage rates haven't come down, you actually see existing sales, the inventory starting to rise. It's up 80,000 homes in May. That's on top of 90,000 in April. These are months we should be selling homes. Instead we're not selling them and the inventory is increasing and this is a good thing to some degree. And the NAR says that, well, the increasing inventory should allow some of the supply side to loosen up. And maybe it doesn't say slow price. Rather it doesn't say bring prices down, but slow the pace of gain of prices, of course.

Speaker 1 17:46

Then they went on to mention that the average mortgage payment right now is double. More than double quote, unquote more than double what it was in 2020, before 2020, I should say before the pandemic Average mortgage payment on a new home, the new purchase, more than double what it was before 2020,. According to the NAR National Association of Realtors, in the last five months, every single month, inventory has increased on existing homes for sale. It's up by 290,000 in five months 18.5% year over year was up 6.7% in May alone. But it's all a function of declining sales. And let me tell you, when the Fed turns and cuts rates and mortgage rates comes down, prices will skyrocket. It will be a feeding frenzy. It really will be All right. But because the supply is not, the pipeline is bad. When it comes to supply, all right.

Speaker 1 18:40

Starts, new housing starts 1.28 million. They're expecting 1.38. It was 100,000 homes less than expected. All right. Two months ago it was 1.4. Now it's 1.27. From 1.42 to 1.27 in three months. Not only that starts at a three-year low and it violated a 13-year uptrend and it violated a 13-year uptrend. Permits at 1.4 were expected to be 1.5, and they're down from 1.55 three months ago. Completions are down 6% year over year. So starts, permits, completions, all down, big, all multi-year lows, all violating multi-year, if not multi-decade trend lines. You think you've seen home price inflation already. Wait till the Fed starts cutting interest rates. I mean really, you're going to have a whole, nother rabid market in housing where prices are going to skyrocket. Maybe mortgage rates come down enough to make it affordable. We'll see All right.

Speaker 1 19:44

Commercial real estate's not out of the woods. Delinquencies on office rates are now almost 7%. They were one a year and a half ago. Overall, cmbs delinquency rate is closing in on five. There was an office building recently sold in New York City and what's interesting is we're finally selling these buildings and we're finding out just how deep the price cuts are. As much as 90% On average. In San Francisco you're down 45%. The one building sold in Manhattan that's really famous, 1740 Broadway. I know this building, I used to walk by it all the time.

Speaker 1 20:24

All right, the bondholders took a bloodbath, okay, took a bloodbath. Anything that was below A-rated Class A bondholders lost 100% Anything double A A B, b, triple b minus, double b minus or b plus junk essentially, and of that basically you're talking about oh gosh, I don't know. Overall was over 100 100 million dollars just obliterated. All right, even the top class only got 74 cents on the dollar on their bonds. So, so this is a problem.

Speaker 1 21:01

Look at the banks. I mean, look at the banks. If you're not a money center bank or a consumer lender, you're doing really poorly. And you know stuff like New York Community Bank and some of the other banks that are, you know, less than $10 billion in assets that hold a large amount. The small banks in the US with less than 10 billion in assets hold 35 percent of commercial real estate loans and I mean these stocks are mostly on their lows and the community and the regional bank index is breaking down again.

Speaker 1 21:31

So what do we do here? Well, there's some bright spots I mean, there's always bright spots and I think you know one of the things. And just to get back to the election real quick, because I do want to mention this before we get to strategy, um, there was someone that put this to me on twitter and I thought this was really interesting and you know, maybe they want biden to run because they know who to lose, and we know, no matter what happens here, there's going to be a recession. You have a consumer that's choking. You got business that are choking. All right, that democrats want to like let trump take blame for the recession and then swoop back in in 2028, and that's interesting. It's not without merit, that thought process, it isn't. I don't give them that much credit and I don't think anyone wants to relinquish power, especially joe biden, but I thought that was an interesting sideline.

Speaker 1 22:15

So what do we do? What's the strategies here? Well, I can tell you right now, energy, all of a sudden, is starting to look good. All right, crude oil inventory is down five of the last nine weeks for a total of 1.7 million barrels over that period. Now that doesn't seem like a lot, because it isn't, but it's a major build period in the spring where you should be seeing inventories increase. All right, you're now 6 million barrels below the year ago level. You're below the five-year average and part of this, of course, is demand. You know gasoline, I mean input to refineries in the most recent week was over 17 million barrels per day. That's up from 16.4. That's a 3.7% year-over-year increase in demand from refineries and this is why the deferred what we call the forward-forwards, which is the 12-month swap rate from December, so from December of 2024 to December of 2025, it's a $5 nearby price premium, because that's how badly the market wants to bring crude to market for delivery to meet demand. Demand is high, if we include this strategic petroleum reserve which, of course, joe Biden in his wisdom has decided to liquidate so he could try and maintain oil prices and keep WTI below $80. It's worked, but it's worked to the expense that you've gone down by 100 million barrels. It took 10.3% from where you were in 2022. Right now, the USO is the crude oil ETF. It looks like it's breaking out, so I like energy here.

Consumer Spending Trends and Investment Opportunities

Speaker 1 23:51

In terms of crude oil, I do think that uranium and I also think crypto are in corrective modes, gold and silver in corrective modes. I just did a piece on where are the buy zones, because these are major buys on a long-term basis. Nothing has changed fundamentally in any of these markets, but you do have liquidation and you have a stronger dollar, and this is the thing when you talk about where the stock market is. What's interesting is the Fed remains tight, the Fed, the QT right now, in other words, the rolling off of bonds from the Fed spreadsheets running at $1.1 trillion over the last 52 weeks, and it's a little bit less than it had been, but it's still $1.1 trillion, which, previous to the last few weeks, would have been the most ever, is the most ever, and with an interest rate of 5.5 against an inflation rate below 3.5, the Fed's policy rate is punitively tight. Their bond policy is tightening, the Fed's tightening right now into an economy that's clearly weakening, into a consumer that's maxed out on credit cards with delinquencies through the roof that are not spending on discretionary items. I will tell you this specifically.

Speaker 1 25:00

We talk about discretionary items, by the way, all right, I will specifically note two that are always strong, especially when gasoline prices are down, and gasoline prices were down so much in May. You would have thought that online shopping and eating and drinking establishments sales would have been up, but they weren't All right. Food and drinking establishments sales fell in May. They fell on online sales in April and on a year-over-year basis, they're coming down hard 6.8, which has been running double digits for months and months and months, and months and months, ever since the pandemic is coming down. The year-over-year rate in food and drinking establishments in just in May, on the monthly decline which is really rare, especially when gasoline sales are down, because it's a three to two correlation For every $3 saved at the gas station, $2 are spent online or eating and drinking establishments. That got blown out of the water here. Gasoline sales were down and sales in non-store retailers were down last month and sales in food and drink establishments down this month, and the year-over-year rate in eating and drinking establishment sales just fell from 6. It had been running 8, but it fell from 6 in April to 3.8 against a 3.4 inflation rate. That's barely positive. Consumers are cocooning. It's as evident as it can be in the data.

Speaker 1 26:19

So what do we do? Well, again, energy. Okay, I think there's buy zones in some of these commodities, but not yet. I think I still like the DBA, which is the agricultural commodity ETF. But I also like I mean, if you want to talk XLC, the communication services sector of the S&P 500, it made a new high this week, a new all-time high. It's broken out against the S&P 500, and not many indexes are doing that outside of Infotech. It's up 8% against the broader market over the last 52 weeks. It includes Google and Meta, both of which I really like. Okay, netflix, ea Sports and T-Mobile are also top performers there. But I got to tell you what's the most impressive looking stock right there right now, and I'm going to cringe when I say that and you might cringe when you hear it.

Speaker 1 27:10

At&t. It's a major trend reversal from levels that in the past have marked real value below $20 a share for AT&T. It's breaking a two-year trend line. It has all kinds of turning momentum. It's been a major laggard. The service, from what I understand I don't use AT&T, but what I understand people that use AT&T they don't like it. But I tell you what, from a stock perspective it's been beaten to death and it's breaking out and the whole sector is breaking out.

Speaker 1 27:42

We've allocated to the XLC. We're also allocating to real estate and what's interesting about real estate is I want to keep an eye on the MBB. It's an ETF that measures the mortgage-backed securities market. Interest rates come down, mortgage rates come down. This thing will explode. All right, if you get through 9276 on the mbb, that's mom, boy boy. You'll be a medium term breakout and above 9455 would be a major secular low in the mortgage backed securities market, meaning mortgage rates coming down. That's a great way to play it. So keep that in mind. I I also like the XLRE. Even Simon Property Group, with malls still kind of in trouble, is going for a second bull leg confirmation for a longer-term upside breakout. And when you see something like that happen, you kind of know Bad news.

Speaker 1 28:34

To some degree outside of office space has been priced. And then we have Infotech. Now Infotech looks fatigued. I got to say some degree outside of office space has been priced. And then we have Infotech. Now Infotech looks fatigued. I got to say the distribution, the unbalanced volume, the volume, even the NASDAQ. You've really widely owned here. You've had huge ownership increase in the second quarter. You just have it's fatigued technically. Look at Friday. It was a key downside-tailed candlestick reversal of technical significance.

Speaker 1 29:05

I like Apple. It just broke out. It's fresh. It's been an underperformer.

Speaker 1 29:10

I also say if you used to be, you attached com in 1999, 2000, and the stock would take off. These days there's two things you can attach that work like com. Number one is the word networks. Look at Arista Networks. Look at Palo Alto Networks top performers. Or app Just say it's an app. Look at NetApp. Now, if that doesn't look 1999, 2000, I don't know what does, but what I do like within the sector. Besides, apple is also old school gone, new school applied materials and Oracle kind of out of nowhere.

Speaker 1 29:40

Now I can certainly show you more of all of this. We do this every single day. We have the portfolio playbook that we put out, we have the global macro strategy report that we put out and we do a gold-specific piece. I'd be happy to give you samples of that. You can email me at sales at weldononlinecom. That's W-E-L-D-O-N online one word, weldononlinecom. And anything that you heard me mention here, whether it's housing, whether it's the federal debt, whether it's retail sales, whether it's consumer prices I have recent reports on all of that. Make sure to check us out on Twitter. I tweet a lot of really interesting stories from Bloomberg and Reuters and that is at WeldonLive, and certainly check us out on our podcast Twitter, which is at money underscore podcast. Check us out on YouTube. I am Gregory underscore Weldon on YouTube and you can check out the podcast Money Markets and New Age Investing, also on YouTube and on Facebook. That's it for this month. Thanks a lot. Keep it safe out there.